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PKLEAKS 38.0: Pakistan at the Crossroads

Published on April 22, 2022 | 14:29 PKT
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Just on the intervening night of April 09 and 10, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan Fell from his grace after the National Assembly of Pakistan ousted the defiant leader in a no confidence vote proposed by the joint opposition spearheaded by PML-N leader Shehbaz Sharif. The disgraceful exit has led to all round chaos on the streets of Pakistan, putting the country on an uncertain journey. Its future trajectory counts much for the region and beyond.

Signs of Imran Khan’s doom began to appear after Khan sought to be locked in a shilly- shallying battle (last year) with none other than Pakistan’s Army Chief over appointment of Lt General Nadeem Anjum as new DG, ISI . Though Khan eventually ceded ground to the de facto ruler of Pakistan but relations had turned sour in a significant manner by then. Aside from the issue of new DG, ISI’s appointment, Imran Khan’s over stretched position on Pakistan’s relations with the US, the Middle East and India had derailed Pakistan’s foreign policy in a dramatic way and was in utter disregard of how Pakistan establishment would have liked them to be. As if it were not enough, Pakistan’s precipitously shrinking economy and stringent conditionalities of IMF to release loan tranches had further put his regime in a precarious and untenable position. And these things made for a poisonous cocktail, which no one in Pakistan could afford to sustain. This time around, one thing was different though. Unlike in the past, Pakistani deep state chose to assume the veneer of neutrality and rather than pulling the rug from under Khan’s feet in a brazen manner, it let the constitution have its play, so as to give the coup a legal and constitutional cover.

Things started coming apart after PTI’s own allies and cadres began to jump the ship and join forces with the guided opposition. Allies like MQM-P, Baloch Awami Party, Jamhoori Watan Party, a few independents and PTI’s own dozen allies turned rebels over night, making a severe dent in PTI’s National Assembly strength. Initially indulged in chest thumping and vowing to fight back till the last ball, an apparently steel solid Khan did not take long to realize that his ship was sinking. Just in a last ditch effort, Khan found solace in a foreign conspiracy letter , which he set off waving it in front of the public, claiming that the US had hatched and funded a conspiracy to oust his legal regime with an aim to put in place an imported government. He also made allegations that there were vicious plans to assassinate him. No doubt, this is part of his early campaign to mobilize his core base with an aim at elections which might be round the corner. Employing this rhetoric, he torpedoed plans of the opposition on April 03 when Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly Qasim Suri, in a show of loyalty to his master, scrapped the motion and dissolved the National Assembly to pave the way for fresh elections. The turn of events initially placed Khan in the victorious camp but things would take yet another turn in a couple of days. Khan’s own brand of coup did not wash with the opposition and more importantly, establishmentarians. The supreme judiciary was roped in to correct the course, a feat which it pulled off in its ruling a few days later, on April 07. Orders were out to restore both the National Assembly and Khan’s Cabinet so that the assembly could be reconvened and the no confidence motion be tabled. There is no need to recount what occurred after. After the mid night session saw Khan out, Shehbaz Sharif was sworn in as Pakistan’s 23rd Prime Minister on April 11.

Against this backdrop, it is pertinent to analyze how things may play out in times to come. First, the joint ruling alliance is motley of a number of parties with different ideologies and agendas. They have, for certain, their own scheme of things with an eye on next year’s elections. How far this motley group will remain coherent is a million dollar question. If Khan and lawmakers decide to resign en masse, there may be a need to call early elections as holding by elections to 100 plus seats will be a costly affair, and does not suit Pakistan’s financial woes. Secondly, if PML-N’s exiled leader Nawaz Sharif makes a comeback to Pakistan in the near term, his mere presence may make things awkward for the incumbent Prime Minister. Still worse, a majority of PTI’s cadres as well as common masses are out on the streets against the alleged coup and Pak Army Chief. If they are joined by fundamentalist groups, things may take an uglier turn. If one were to believe media reports, sections of Pakistani Army have hidden sympathies for Khan as well as apprehensions that Bajwa’s hold might extend beyond November this year.

Equally important are geopolitics ramifications. If the new regime makes a renewed outreach to the US and cedes ground to them in the region, it may trigger angst of both China and Russia. Already, there are reports of the US drones launching aerial operations in Afghanistan from Pakistan. This outreach may earn the wrath of Pakistanis who view the entire episode as a sell out to the US. One may also see Pakistan tweaking its stance towards Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Closer home, there is a possibility that Pakistan may open back door talks with India and further build up on the ceasefire agreement with India, which has largely held since February 2020. One may recall that Bajwa has always batted for rapprochement with India. As for Kashmir, separatists and terror mongers may feel disheartened over developments in Pakistan as an inward looking Pakistan is always likely to look the other way. My two cents are that India will do well to remain in wait and watch mode till there is political stability in Pakistan.

Hope, Pakistan takes a mature step towards democracy!



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